Uncertainty— “persona non grata”
If I talk in terms of a statistics student, I’ll describe randomness as a stochastic component representing the variables that for some reasons couldn’t be included in our model. We may have all the variables to form a hypothesis and come on to a conclusion but there will always be some variables that will be left and these very variables, if not given a proper provision can lead us to making some serious errors, rendering the entire model moot.
Uncertainty is what the entire probability theory is based upon, and today most of the very important concepts stem from this theory, and have helped us solve a lot of complex problems.
Yes, I’m talking about the uncertainty that lead to the financial crisis, one that left the entire world befuddled when Donald Trump “won” the US presidential elections, or when Narendra Modi decided to expunge 500 and 1000 rupee notes from the Indian economy, something that “evil” corp from Mr. Robot never thought about (to quote a fictitious example), Tsunamis, earthquake, North Korea, or something as mysterious as the disappearance of Malaysia airlines flight 370.
Uncertainty brews itself behind the veils of our complacence or certainty (arrogance in some places) in our decisions or daily activities. We can plan everything, work around that plan, yet unknowingly fail to account for some very essential things, that toss everything to the trash can. Things like, your partner moving to a new city when you thought you had more time with them, not clearing an internship interview despite being one of the deserving candidates, unexpected health issues, getting involved in an accident despite driving safely and the list goes on. You may protect yourself from the front, back, left, and right, but you will forget that there’s one more direction that can render you crumpled, an attack from upwards. Likewise, you might think you have covered all your bases, but they’re always will be some inherent randomness slowly forming itself, that’ll catch you off guard.
Everyone tries to protect themselves from uncertainty, it is this psychology that companies thrive upon. Their selling points seek to cover you against the gruesome effects of uncertainty. Insurance policies, hedge funds, stock market analysis, etc. are all meant for the very same purpose.
Its this uncertainty that makes people say, “don’t expect too much”, and its this uncertainty that, ambushes on you, consequently driving you into depression and throwing you into the dark recesses of your mind, its really difficult to get out from.
I was a victim of uncertainty more than ever this year, and the key points to be driven home on a more micro level are:-
- Never take anyone for granted. Make the most of your time with them. They’ll leave before it hits you in the face.
- Besides being rational in your approach in planning or problem solving, follow your intuition too. Carefully listen to what its trying to say, it can protect you from great losses arising out of the blue.
- Try to make your thought process more agile, and work around ways to be more resilient so that when and where it hits, it doesn’t take long for you to recuperate and get back to your game.
- Be more open to factors and variables that can play an instrumental role in an apt decision making process, don’t deem something as irrelevant just because it seems that way.
On a more universal level, In this convoluted web of 7.6 billion people taking decisions at random, and the fact that everyone is interdependent and interconnected, it becomes extremely difficult to arrive at something concrete. Everyone is acting at random making decisions in their own interest, which leaves one confused as to what their next step will be.
Again, needless to say uncertainty surrounds us all. Its as inevitable as its usage in this article for the umpteenth time. It can not be totally avoided but its effects can be mitigated to a certain level that doesn’t do much harm. That involves an amalgamation of careful analysis of data as well as intuitive thinking, because numbers alone can not lead us anywhere, also it is sometimes dependent upon how much luck we have.
On the personal front, follow what your gut says, and have faith in the order of things. Again, don’t confuse faith with complacence. Walk through the paths of life with the required knowledge, and keeping the fact in mind that.. (brace yourself for the mainstream quote of the era)…change is the only constant. Don’t fixate on something or someone and be more responsive to the dynamics of life.
Thank you!
Critical feedback will be appreciated.
